2014 Kicks Off With Busy News Flow
The first full trading week of 2014 sees a significant amount of data due for release. Following on from the Christmas and New Year market closures, this week we see the markets in full swing.
Kicking off the week we see both PMI figures due for release on both sides of the Atlantic. UK Services PMI figures and United States ‘non-Manufacturing PMI’ figures are likely to set the early tone for their respective currencies.
The big news comes later in the week with both the European Central Bank and Bank Of England rate decisions and the significant US Non Farm payrolls figures due for release on Friday. These events are likely to set the early tone for markets around the globe for 2014 and are likely to spark volatile trading.
Market Indices have bounced strongly over the holiday period and are perhaps in need for a period of consolidation. Broadly however, Indices look set for further gains as we move into 2014.
For those using Binary Options to trade stocks, the start of 2014 will be interesting in terms of the many trading statements that we will start to see from retailers. UK retailer Tesco is the first to provide an update on the all important Christmas trading period. This could give an insight as to what to expect from other retailers and the prospect for long or short trading opportunities.
Key News This Week
Forex
EUR/USD – Despite attempting to push higher, the pair ended the week below 1.36. 1.385 provides an important level of resistance. A break and close lower opens up the potential for a move back below 1.35. Rallies higher should be capped before 1.3680 for now.
USD/JPY – The gap created at the opening on the 26th has now been filled. This together with a strong rally from a move to test 104 last week sets a bullish outlook for the pair. Expect further gains over the coming sessions. Targets are 105.30 and 106.13.
USD/CHF – Having pushed back above 0.90 the pair next level of interest which is currently 0.9050. This level coincides with the falling trend line set from the 4th September. A move and close higher could signal a reversal of the larger bearish picture.
GBP/USD – Despite a pullback at the end of last week, the bullish tone remains. Above 1.6380 keeps the picture intact for further gains. An early move back above 1.6450 should see additional gains this week.
Major Indices
DOW – The strong rally back above the 16000 level before Christmas keeps the bullish tone intact for the Index. Remain bullish on the Index but prepare for a some consolidation and a pullback to 16000 before moving higher.
NASDAQ – The Index has jumped higher. Pushing towards 4200 the Nasdaq eventually ended the week at 4131. From a technical perspective the gap up on the weekly chart should be filled. Look for a retest of 4100 before moving higher.
FTSE – Pushing back above 6600 the Index retains a positive outlook. However as with the US Indices we would expect to see some consolidation or pullback at the start of the New Year prior to additional gains. Look higher against 6600.
Commodities
Oil – After pushing above the $100 level price fell heavily over the last week to end just above prior support at $94.09. Given the extent of the fall and current technical momentum expect further falls this week. A break below $94 would see $90 tested.
Gold – Having briefly moved below the key $1200 level intra-day, the metal bounced to close the week at $1237. With a potential double bottom forming on the weekly chart it seems sensible to look higher. A move above $1300 would provide confirmation of a medium term low having being formed.
Stocks
Little stock news to report on either side of the Atlantic this week other than Tesco’s trading statement update on Thursday.
The significance of these figures will be important not just for Tesco but could also provide an insight into how other retailers have fared over the Christmas trading period. Early indications are that trading figures are set to disappoint.
